Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 35.5)

In the past, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh usually played his starters for most of the first quarter but with a rash of injuries during the summer, Baltimore may limit the action of its first stringers. 

Tampa Bay is also trying to protect its key players from injury this offseason. The Bucs aren’t sold on Josh Freeman as the No. 1, so there could be plenty of snaps for him and rookie QB Mike Glennon.

St. Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-4, 35.5)

St. Louis is going to give RB Daryl Richardson the starting gig heading into the preseason opener. The Rams will work in their new offensive line additions Thursday, so Sam Bradford’s workload could depend on the protection.

Cleveland won’t have RB Trent Richardson in the lineup versus St. Louis and is still without Montario Hardesty, leaving rushing duties to third and fourth-stringers Dion Lewis and Brandon Jackson. 

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 35.5)

While Robert Griffin III says he feels great, the Redskins won’t risk throwing their franchise QB out there Thursday. Washington will go with Kirk Cousins at QB and is expected to play its starters 10-15 plays.

Tennessee head coach Mike Munchak is focusing on his rebuilt offensive line this preseason, more specifically paving the way for RB Chris Johnson. The Titans first string will play between 18 and 25 plays.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 37)

These two teams have shared practice time the past week, so there may be some familiarity with each other Thursday. Bengals star WR A.J. Green will sit out while nursing a sore knee and fellow WR Andrew Hawkins is out with an ankle injury.

Atlanta won’t have TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Julio Jones or LB Sean Weatherspoon in Week 1 of the preseason. Head coach Mike Smith may not keep QB Matt Ryan under center long with injuries to the offensive line this week.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 35)

Peyton Manning is expected to see limited action all preseason but he did tell reporters he was anxious to play the 49ers Thursday, hinting that he may actually take snaps Thursday. Manning didn’t play in Denver’s Week 1 preseason game last summer.

San Francisco will give its first stringers a taste of action before turning its attention to position needs. An injury to CB Chris Culliver has left a big hole in the secondary, so there could be plenty of tinkering with the pass defense. Colt McCoy will get some face time as Colin Kaepernick’s backup.

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers (+2, 35.5)

The Seahawks have become one of the best preseason bets, going 39-26-3 ATS since 1995 including a 4-0 ATS mark last summer. Seattle QB Russell Wilson, who will see limited snaps, told reporters the Seahawks are bringing a basic offense into Thursday game.

San Diego’s new head coach Mike McCoy is stressing speed this summer, so the Bolts could be full of juice Thursday night, even though they’re missing some downfield threats. The Chargers lost WR Danario Alexander for the season after he tore his ACL this week and WR Vincent Brown is still slowed with a hamstring strain.

Step #1:

(PW) 4% of bankroll 20% of the time.

(PW) stands for "Prime Wagers".

For example: If your bankroll is $400 then your prime wagers will be $16 (4% of $400).

Prime Wagers will be made in 2 out of every 10 games that are bet on average. 





Prime Wagers are the best plays of the day. They don't have to be a sure shot that is "suppose to be" much the best. For example: A Prime Wager can be a win bet on a True Odds Overlay. 

a Top Pick or Best Overlay that looks solid, etc, etc.

As mentioned in several other articles it is highly recommended that the player has
a separate bankroll for win bets and exotics.

Please Note:
Every player should have a "win bets bankroll" first and foremost. If the
player has a decent size overall bankroll it can be split up for win bets and
exotics and each exotic type wager gets a bankroll.

For example:
A player has a $1000 overall bankroll. $400 of that becomes the win bets bankroll,
$300 becomes the exacta bets bankroll and $300 becomes the pick 3 bankroll, etc. 

If the player does have a large enough overall bankroll to split, it is
recommended that at least 40% of it becomes the "win bets bankroll". The
rest can be divided into the exotic wagers that are desired most by the player. 

It has been proven by many experts over the decades that win bets are
the most productive type of wager. 

Step #2:

(RW) 2% of bankroll 50% of the time.

(RW) stands for "Regular Wagers".

For example: If your bankroll is $400 then
your regular bets will be $8 (2% of $400).

Regular Wagers will be made by the player in 5 out of every 10 games on average.

Regular Wagers are nothing special like prime bets but are still worth playing. They can be a
win bet using the Conservative / Powerful Betting strategy strategy, etc. 



Step #3:

(AW) 1% of bankroll 30% of the time.

(AW) stands for "Action Wagers".


For example: If your bankroll is $400 then your action bets will be $4
(1% of $400).

Action Wagers will be made by the player in 3 out of every 10 games on average.

Action wagers are basically bets just to have "action". Since many players only wager on the weekends or such, they don't like to pass a game.

This is acceptable as long as a small percentage
of bankroll is wagered on these games. It is ideal to actually pass certain 
 games when you are not liking the line but many players simply choose not to.

 
Summary:

Billy Walters Practices Bankroll Management

Walters uses the data from his systems to come up with his own lines and then
bets on the differences.  He varies his bet amount by how much different
his own line is from the sportsbook’s line.  He mentions that he had won a
record amount on the Saints/Colts Superbowl: $3.5M.  Clearly he took
advantage of substantial differences in his own projections vs. the oddsmakers
and the higher betting limits that a Superb Bowl allows.

Billy Walters Is Very Astute About Line Moves

For anyone paying attention, this was the real revelation about the
program.  Walters was speaking to one of his beards on the phone (guys who
place bets for him) and he was very strict saying that if a casino would allow
him a half point, he would play, and if not he would hold off.  Line moves
are the #1 way for a bettor to beat the house, without question.

To do some math, remember that as the bettor, you are risking money in the
proportion of $110 to win $100 when you bet.  Therefore you need to win
approximately 52.4% of the time to win money.  Line moves give you an
opportunity to blow these odds out of the water.  Even if your system was
flipping a coin, picking up an extra point in the NFL would give you an extra
4.6-6.0 percent chance of winning – meaning just by being astute about shopping
for lines, you have increased your chances from 50% to around 55% on each game
which over the course of a season will lead to huge returns.  In the NBA, a
point is even more pronounced, giving the gambler an extra 5.8-6.6%
advantage.  Realizing how the numbers are stacked in a line shopper’s
favor, it is no wonder that Billy Walters was so emphatic and disciplined about
a half point…

Our take away

While Billy Walters didn’t give away the farm regarding his betting
philosophy, it was nice to see such a big fish in our little corner of the
world, sports betting, get some mainstream airtime.  While Walters let on
that he was serious about system betting, and we believe him, he offered little
into what criteria he considers when looking for an advantage.  The most
telling part was what he said to his beard about line shopping: he was very
serious about gaining an advantage from line moves.  The numbers bear him out:

 Line Moves are the number one way to profit in Sport Betting. Take that to the bank!